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Is Uncertainty a synonym of cancer? I wonder sometimes...
When pathology labs were fighting over the little sample that was available for diagnosis and while I was waiting to hear back from them about whether a) it was benign, b) it was malignant and c) what type of cancer it was so we could deal with it, I thought that the hardest thing to deal with was uncertainty.
I was also under the impression that once a+b+c would be figured out, there would be a plan and I'd just be cruising along. But not really. No data fits my case, most oncologists have never seen a disease quite like that and past surgery, treatment options are experimental. Option 2 and Option 1 both contain an unquantifiable amount of risk. So there is still uncertainty.
Every new bit of information comes with its load of decisions, stats and imbroglio of medical terms.
Glad that there's a bit of time in-between decisions...It definitely helps.
******************
Re: Low Potential, Low Risk and Me.
Someone who is quite astute with numbers did point out to me that Low could be Very Likely in my case, given my recent history, and should not be discarded in my decision making. Even though the events described below are probably quite independent, they prove one thing: rare can happen, and moreover, it has happened to me.
a) Not very many people get hit by a whale mid-ocean
b) Not very many people get this type of cancer in the first place
c) Not very many people do not like chocolate
d) Not very many people in the US do not own a TV
e) Not very many people lose their teapot to an angry stove burner
Someone who is even more astute with numbers did point out a correllary to this Law of Small Numbers.
"You said that you felt invincible because of the oddities like the whale that you came through just fine on, while I want to argue that independent probabilities do still apply to you."
It is true that this can work both ways - and I could feel both fortunate (to have survived the sinkage) and unfortunate (to have sunk). Or lucky that they have found an undetectable cancer (other than through biopsies) early and unlucky that they have found a cancer.
If there are any more Field Medals in the audience, feel free to add theorems, counter-theories and other unbelievably long formulas in the comment area.
***************************
I just went out for my Walk Around The Block. Walking around the block is a fairly dangerous activity, so my advice to you is to not attempt it without first checking with your family doctor.
If you get a green light from a competent physician, preferrably with a medical degree, then you may wish to proceed cautiously, and follow these steps. If you get a drawing that looks like a light bulb (green or not) and is supposed to represent your uterus, I suggest you switch to another doctor.
As a preparation, choose a flashy looking modern sports outfit that says "I can climb Everest in flip flops". "I Love Big Boobs", or "Am I Hot or Not" are not in fashion anymore.
First, you need to stretch. That's because most people look quite sexy when they do that. I recommend placing yourself at a street corner that gets quite a bit of traffic to increase your odds of picking someone up. It's always nice to have some company during a little stroll. Choose someone who seems to walk quite slowly. It will make you look good.
Next, make sure that you have forgotten your wallet with the money necessary to sustain you during this long trip so you need to walk back up two flights of stairs and get some extra exercise. It also allows you to check one last time your hairdo.
You will then start walking. To reduce the risk of falling, you should keep one foot on the ground while throwing the other one into the air and look as if you know where you're going. Do not try big steps. Research proves that small steps are more elegant and increase your chances of getting invited for a coffee (particularly handy if you decided not to walk back up to get your wallet).
This can be strenuous exercise. Stopping in front of a well-decorated shop and admire the various exceptional offers from time to time will certainly allow your heart to maintain a safe pace. You should save this organ for the rush of Love At First Sight, a side activity, often practiced pre and post-stretching. If you feel tired, you may be carrying too much weight for your level of fitness. This can also provide an excellent occasion to offload some of the contents of your wallet.
After you have walked half a block, find the most comfortable chair outside a coffee shop and take a break. Do not overdo it! This is a really important step because coffee is so good. You'd be stupid to miss out on it just because someone said you should do a loop around the block. The block will not go away but your coffee might get cold. If you haven't gone back for your wallet, offer to do the dishes. It will offer complementary exercise for your upper body and is excellent for hygiene. Don't stay too long back there though, you are less likely to attract The Person Of Your Life. It's hard to see that you have polished your trainers when they're out of the light.
The next and last real difficulty in this exercise is to cross the street. This is best done at a 90 degree angle from the curb as you would not want to walk 0.1 mile in the wrong direction. You do not need to wait until the street is clear of traffic. Just pick a driver that looks cute, look him or her in the eyes as a smile beams out on your face and reduce your pace as you cross in front of that car. Hopefully, you'll get a ride back to your place.
Finally, you will be back in front of your house, appartment, boat or office. Remember to look quite exhausted but make sure you haven't walked so fast as to sweat extensively. The smell can be quite repulsive. Open the door, walk to the phone and call the person who offered you that coffee and nearly ran you over as you were crossing the street. That's it! You're done!
When pathology labs were fighting over the little sample that was available for diagnosis and while I was waiting to hear back from them about whether a) it was benign, b) it was malignant and c) what type of cancer it was so we could deal with it, I thought that the hardest thing to deal with was uncertainty.
I was also under the impression that once a+b+c would be figured out, there would be a plan and I'd just be cruising along. But not really. No data fits my case, most oncologists have never seen a disease quite like that and past surgery, treatment options are experimental. Option 2 and Option 1 both contain an unquantifiable amount of risk. So there is still uncertainty.
Every new bit of information comes with its load of decisions, stats and imbroglio of medical terms.
Glad that there's a bit of time in-between decisions...It definitely helps.
******************
Re: Low Potential, Low Risk and Me.
Someone who is quite astute with numbers did point out to me that Low could be Very Likely in my case, given my recent history, and should not be discarded in my decision making. Even though the events described below are probably quite independent, they prove one thing: rare can happen, and moreover, it has happened to me.
a) Not very many people get hit by a whale mid-ocean
b) Not very many people get this type of cancer in the first place
c) Not very many people do not like chocolate
d) Not very many people in the US do not own a TV
e) Not very many people lose their teapot to an angry stove burner
Someone who is even more astute with numbers did point out a correllary to this Law of Small Numbers.
"You said that you felt invincible because of the oddities like the whale that you came through just fine on, while I want to argue that independent probabilities do still apply to you."
It is true that this can work both ways - and I could feel both fortunate (to have survived the sinkage) and unfortunate (to have sunk). Or lucky that they have found an undetectable cancer (other than through biopsies) early and unlucky that they have found a cancer.
If there are any more Field Medals in the audience, feel free to add theorems, counter-theories and other unbelievably long formulas in the comment area.
***************************
I just went out for my Walk Around The Block. Walking around the block is a fairly dangerous activity, so my advice to you is to not attempt it without first checking with your family doctor.
If you get a green light from a competent physician, preferrably with a medical degree, then you may wish to proceed cautiously, and follow these steps. If you get a drawing that looks like a light bulb (green or not) and is supposed to represent your uterus, I suggest you switch to another doctor.
As a preparation, choose a flashy looking modern sports outfit that says "I can climb Everest in flip flops". "I Love Big Boobs", or "Am I Hot or Not" are not in fashion anymore.
First, you need to stretch. That's because most people look quite sexy when they do that. I recommend placing yourself at a street corner that gets quite a bit of traffic to increase your odds of picking someone up. It's always nice to have some company during a little stroll. Choose someone who seems to walk quite slowly. It will make you look good.
Next, make sure that you have forgotten your wallet with the money necessary to sustain you during this long trip so you need to walk back up two flights of stairs and get some extra exercise. It also allows you to check one last time your hairdo.
You will then start walking. To reduce the risk of falling, you should keep one foot on the ground while throwing the other one into the air and look as if you know where you're going. Do not try big steps. Research proves that small steps are more elegant and increase your chances of getting invited for a coffee (particularly handy if you decided not to walk back up to get your wallet).
This can be strenuous exercise. Stopping in front of a well-decorated shop and admire the various exceptional offers from time to time will certainly allow your heart to maintain a safe pace. You should save this organ for the rush of Love At First Sight, a side activity, often practiced pre and post-stretching. If you feel tired, you may be carrying too much weight for your level of fitness. This can also provide an excellent occasion to offload some of the contents of your wallet.
After you have walked half a block, find the most comfortable chair outside a coffee shop and take a break. Do not overdo it! This is a really important step because coffee is so good. You'd be stupid to miss out on it just because someone said you should do a loop around the block. The block will not go away but your coffee might get cold. If you haven't gone back for your wallet, offer to do the dishes. It will offer complementary exercise for your upper body and is excellent for hygiene. Don't stay too long back there though, you are less likely to attract The Person Of Your Life. It's hard to see that you have polished your trainers when they're out of the light.
The next and last real difficulty in this exercise is to cross the street. This is best done at a 90 degree angle from the curb as you would not want to walk 0.1 mile in the wrong direction. You do not need to wait until the street is clear of traffic. Just pick a driver that looks cute, look him or her in the eyes as a smile beams out on your face and reduce your pace as you cross in front of that car. Hopefully, you'll get a ride back to your place.
Finally, you will be back in front of your house, appartment, boat or office. Remember to look quite exhausted but make sure you haven't walked so fast as to sweat extensively. The smell can be quite repulsive. Open the door, walk to the phone and call the person who offered you that coffee and nearly ran you over as you were crossing the street. That's it! You're done!
posted by Finance Monkey at 11:30 AM
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